驚！權威產業估價師張仰榮博士預測，大馬房地產業暴風雨即將來臨，2018年或全面崩潰！許多人將面臨破產危機！

驚！權威產業估價師張仰榮博士預測，大馬房地產業暴風雨即將來臨，2018年或全面崩潰！許多人將面臨破產危機！

張仰榮博士預測，大馬產業界大風暴已經醞釀多時，很可能明年將全面爆發。

《目前最先預感風暴將來臨的就是屋業發展商，他們新建的房屋已經越來越難找到買主。除了一些信譽良好的大型發展商，及在優良地段發展的房屋計劃之外，許多中小型發展商面對房屋賣不出去的困境了。》他說。

調查顯示，由於大馬經濟處於不景氣，失業率偏高，許多人已經失去了房屋的購買力，甚至連現在居住的房屋供期也還不起了。市場一旦失去購買力，就會迅速走向崩潰。

張仰榮博士Dr. Ernest Cheong認為，發展商及購屋者的焦慮情緒很可能會在明年農歷新年過後爆發，因為農歷新年後的市場一般都很淡靜，當市場沒有了購買力，許多房屋滯銷，整條產業鏈可能就會掀起連鎖反應，骨牌效應一旦出現，崩潰的可能性就越來越大。

他是針對副財政部長李志亮日昨在國會回答提問時公布的數目字做出評論。李志亮在國會回答提問時表示，2017年滯銷的新建房屋為20,807個單位，同比2016年劇增了40%。

這意味著，2017年的大馬房地產業表現，已經比去年遜退了40%。這個數字不可謂不驚人。

這20,287個賣不出去的新建房屋單位總值超過120.26億令吉。其中絕大部分都是些售價超過50萬令吉的高級公寓及有地房屋。

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2017/11/14/property-market-will-be-badly-hit-in-2018-says-expert/#sthash.zjrXReU1.gbpl

張仰榮博士指出，這只是其中一部分的問題而已，那些等待脫售的二手房屋問題還沒計算進來呢。這部分少說也有大約40億令吉的總值，加起來，整個房屋滯銷的代價就高達160億了。這160億的市場一旦爆破，大馬產業界是絕對承受不起的。

因此，張博士估計大馬產業界的風暴肯定已經出現，只是看時間而已。他也預估一旦爆破，產業的不景氣將會持續至少兩到三年，最快也得等到2020年過後才有望復蘇。

張博士因此勸請那些有意購買房地產的人暫時別進場，尤其手上有現金的人，最好多等一兩年。當產業價格暴跌的時候，就是進場的最佳時機。

他預測產業市場如果暴跌，那時的房屋售價可能比現在還要便宜至少20%至40%，視地點與房屋規格而定。

《我擔心的是那些在4、5年前產業價格最巔峰時期購買產業的人，現在面對市場不景氣，房貸又那麼高，想賣又必須虧本賣，或甚至就算願意虧本賣也賣不出去，進退兩難的處境最辛苦。》他說。

Property market will be badly hit in 2018, says expert

PETALING JAYA: The property market will take a terrible hit next year, with developers and house owners facing one of the toughest times to find buyers, says a real estate veteran.

Ernest Cheong said it could lead to a market crash as consumers do not have the financial capacity to own homes with some failing to even pay their monthly instalments.

“The panic (within developers and house owners) might start after Chinese New Year in Fepuary or later if the government decides to pump in money to strengthen the market,” he told FMT.

He was responding to a reply given in the Dewan Rakyat by Deputy Finance Minister Lee Chee Leong who said unsold completed residential units rose by 40% to 20,807 units in the first half of 2017 compared with the same period last year.

Lee had said the units were worth RM12.26 billion with condominiums and apartments costing over RM500,000 dominating the unsold homes in Malaysia.

However, Cheong pointed out that the RM12.26 billion is only from the primary market, which includes launches by developers. It does not include the secondary market, which is house owners seeking to sell their homes.

“Previously, house buyers needed to pay 10% as deposit. Today, the situation is different. Developers are in a desperate situation.

“That is why they are allowing buyers to pay 1% of the property price and pay the remainder upon completion,” he said.

Cheong said this “generous payment mode” exists because developers are finding it hard to sell off their new properties.

He said they are in danger of losing their pidging finance from banks if they fail to sell at least 40% of the total units. The pidging finance is used by developers to support their construction.

“This is where the danger starts. I predict if this continues, markets will crash within 24 to 30 months because consumers do not have the financial capacity to buy properties

“Furthermore, developers who started building two years ago are expected to flood the market further with their units.”

He estimated the value of homes waiting to be sold in the secondary market to be around RM4 billion and expected more foreclosures by banks.

“So about RM16 billion of properties are waiting for buyers. But there is no demand. The reason is that people don’t have the money,” he said.

When the property crash comes early next year, Cheong expects the prices of houses to fall from RM500,000 to RM300,000.

He advised Malaysian consumers not to commit to buying a home unless they could save up to RM1,000 a month for at least a year.

“This is to cover for rainy days if they lose their jobs.”

Cheong said findings by the Employees Provident Fund show that 89% of Malaysians earn RM5,000 and below a month.

He said those who bought their homes five years ago are facing hardship as prices of homes were at their peak then.

On average, for every RM100,000 housing loan, a buyer pays the bank RM500 instalment a month, based on a 30-year payment period.

Cheong advised Malaysians to spend cautiously and invest wisely instead of buying any property at the moment.

“There should not be any urgency to buy a property at the moment. Try renting first.”

來源：絕世高手

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